Intro: An expert who prefers to remain anonymous put this together. Well worth reading and perusing the links that follow.
Quite a lot of news piled up over the last three days, although no dramatic developments since the Syria bugout started. A lot of decent analytical and opinion essays on Russia, and argument about Russia’s gains and losses in Syria, and from the pullout.
Motyl’s essay on the risks in the play is excellent, and puts the focus on how Putin makes short term decisions. Lloyd as always on the money, focussing on the closed circle of Putin, Patrushev and Ivanov who appear to be making all decisions in Moscow – worst case Groupthink model. Also explains the reported dumbfounded behaviour of Lavrov and Shoigu when instructed to bug out.
Pondering the Russian play, it may be motivated more than anything by the intractable behaviours of Putin’s two…
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